Day 29 of War / Day 43 of DHS Shutdown
Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels said they carried out the "first military operation" in support of Iran, after Israel's military earlier said it detected a missile from Yemen. The Houthi rebels in Yemen launched a ballistic missile at Israel on Saturday morning local time. This was the first attack by the Houthis since the war in Gaza ended last October.
Why this changes everything: The Houthis control the Bab al-Mandeb Strait—the 20-mile chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. If Hormuz is the artery, Bab al-Mandeb is the bypass valve. Mohamad Elmasry, a professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, described the Houthis entering the US-Israeli war on Iran as "very significant." "If they decided to move to shut down Bab al-Mandeb strait, the Red Sea and, ultimately, the Suez Canal, then we would have two major choke points [closed] along with the Strait of Hormuz," he said.
While the Houthis started attacking Israel, they have yet to use their "nuclear option" of closing the strait of Bab al-Mandeb in the Red Sea. Doing that would dramatically increase the global economic crisis that has been created due to the war with Iran.
The strategic logic: Saudi Aramco had announced plans to reroute oil via pipelines to the Red Sea port of Yanbu—a workaround for the closed Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Aramco, the world's top oil producer, said it would reroute millions of barrels of crude via a pipeline running to Saudi Arabia's western port of Yanbu in the Red Sea. The Houthi entry threatens that escape valve. If they resume attacks on Red Sea shipping, the "alternative route" becomes another contested waterway.
Houthi escalation could further disrupt the global economy – and worsen conditions in Yemen. It also means we will witness a resumption of the Saudi-Houthi war of 2015 that was put into a truce in 2022.
The USS Gerald R. Ford complication: The involvement of the Houthis in the US-Israeli war on Iran would complicate the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford, the aircraft carrier that went to port in Crete on Monday for repairs. Sending the carrier back into the Red Sea could draw it into the same high tempo of attacks seen by the USS Dwight D Eisenhower in 2024.
If the Houthis close Bab al-Mandeb, global trade faces a two-chokepoint crisis. Expect oil above $120 by midweek if they escalate to shipping attacks.
Must-read: Axios: Houthis join the Iran war
At least 12 U.S. troops were injured Friday in an Iranian attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. At least two of the U.S. service members suffered serious injuries in the attack, which reportedly involved Iranian missiles and drones. At least two U.S. Air Force refueling aircraft were damaged.
The latest casualties add to more than 300 US military service members who have been wounded since the war against Iran started on February 28. This brings confirmed US deaths to 13, with the casualty rate accelerating rather than declining.
Yesterday's expected resolution collapsed. The House on Friday night passed a bill to fund the Department of Homeland Security until May 22. House GOP leaders' decision not to act on a Senate-passed plan has stoked tensions between House and Senate Republicans and raised questions about the path forward for ending the DHS shutdown.
The vote effectively ensures that the ongoing shutdown at DHS continues with no clear end in sight. But the House plan has no obvious path to passage in the Senate, where lawmakers have already left Washington for a planned recess.
It punts the issue back to the Senate, which has left for a two-week recess. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said the House GOP's offer is "dead on arrival" in the upper chamber.
The TSA relief: The Department of Homeland Security said TSA has "immediately" begun the process of paying workers in response to Trump's directive. "TSA officers should begin seeing paychecks as early as Monday, March 30."
The shutdown continues, but the immediate TSA crisis is addressed by executive action. ICE, FEMA, and Coast Guard funding remain in limbo until at least mid-April.
Yesterday's injunction stands, but the fight escalates. The injunction takes effect in seven days. That timeline gives the government until around April 2 to seek an emergency stay from the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, which it has indicated it will do.
Just hours after Thursday's injunction in the California case, Undersecretary of Defense and Chief Technology Officer Emil Michael posted on X that Lin's order contained "dozens of factual errors" and that "the Supply Chain Risk designation … is in full force and effect" under Sec. 4713, which he claimed was not subject to her jurisdiction.
A separate but related case challenging the supply chain designation under a different federal statute is already pending in the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. That means the legal battle over Anthropic's status as a government contractor is likely to play out on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Watch April 2: That's when the seven-day stay expires. If the government files for emergency relief and the Ninth Circuit grants it, the injunction is paused pending appeal. If they don't, or if it's denied, the "Orwellian" designation is formally blocked.
As of March 28, 2026, Brent crude closed at $112.57 per barrel (+4.22%) and WTI crude at $99.64 per barrel (+5.46%) — the highest levels since July 2022. WTI briefly crossed $100.
The Strait has been effectively closed to commercial traffic since March 2, disrupting approximately 17.8 million barrels per day of oil flows. Goldman Sachs estimates a $14-18 per barrel geopolitical risk premium baked into current prices, warning that "Brent is likely to exceed its 2008 all-time high if depressed flows keep the market focused on the risk of lengthier disruptions."
The Houthi entry adds a new risk premium. If they resume Red Sea attacks, the Saudi Aramco pipeline bypass fails, and oil has no relief valve.
With oil back above $112, the Houthis opening a second front, and Iran's "toll booth" system at Hormuz still operating, the structural case for non-Hormuz, non-Red Sea energy sources intensifies further. Nuclear provides baseload power without maritime chokepoint risk. Current position below $52 remains valid.
This is analytical research, not financial advice.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared that "no negotiations have happened with the enemy until now, and we do not plan on any negotiations", while Iran has begun operating a "toll booth" system at the Strait of Hormuz — allowing select Chinese, Russian, and allied vessels to transit while collecting fees in Chinese yuan.
This is not a blockade—it's a new regime. Iran is demonstrating that it can create a two-tier maritime system: one for friends (who pay tribute in yuan), one for enemies (who don't pass at all). The COSCO ship rejection we covered Friday now makes sense: even "friendly" vessels must coordinate and pay.
If insurance markets begin writing policies for "coordinated" transits, a parallel oil market emerges—one denominated in yuan, controlled by Iran, and accessible only to Beijing-aligned economies. The dollar's role as the settlement currency for global oil is being challenged in real-time.
No genuine triumph today. The Houthis entering the war, US troops wounded in Saudi Arabia, and Congress leaving for recess with no DHS deal all point in one direction: escalation without resolution.
Today (Saturday, Mar 28):
Monday, Mar 30:
Thursday, Apr 2:
Monday, Apr 6:
The Houthis just opened a second front. This is not a complication—it's a transformation of the conflict's geometry.
Three things:
First, your Red Sea bypass is now contested. Saudi Aramco announced it would reroute oil via pipeline to Yanbu. That made sense when Hormuz was the only chokepoint. The Houthis just fired missiles at Israel and promised to continue until the war ends. They've stayed out for four weeks, but they control Bab al-Mandeb. If they resume shipping attacks—which they did to over 100 vessels during the Gaza war—your alternative route closes. You'll have two chokepoints blocked, not one.
Second, your DHS is still shut down and your Congress went home. Johnson rejected Thune's deal and passed his own bill that Schumer called "dead on arrival." The Senate is on Easter recess. Your TSA workers get paid Monday via executive order, but ICE, FEMA, and Coast Guard funding remain unfunded. You're waging a two-front Middle East war with your homeland security apparatus running on fumes.
Third, your troop casualties are accelerating. 12 wounded at Prince Sultan yesterday. 300+ wounded total. 13 dead. Iran is still launching missiles and drones despite your claims of military degradation. The Houthis just joined. Hezbollah continues attacks from Lebanon. You've expanded Israeli occupation to the Litani River. Your war is spreading, not concluding. Define what victory looks like—or explain why April 6 is different from March 28.
Eating People Is Wrong, and Other Essays on Famine, Its Past, and Its Future by Cormac Ó Gráda (2015)
Why now: With two maritime chokepoints potentially closed, global fertilizer flows disrupted, and the UN warning of "a far wider humanitarian disaster," understanding how supply disruptions create famine is essential. Ó Gráda's essays trace the historical patterns of mass starvation—and why modern famines are almost always political.
Core insight: Famines don't happen because food doesn't exist. They happen because food doesn't reach people. The current conflict is demonstrating this in real-time: grain, LPG, and fertilizer flows are blocked not by shortage but by chokepoint control. Understanding the difference between supply failure and access failure is the difference between solving crises and misdiagnosing them.
~272 pages. Essential reading as energy becomes a weapon.
— Jane
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